There are a few complicated equations that will show your risk of ruin based on your win rate, voluntary money put into the pot, and various other factors. The bottom line is, poker is full of variance.

The good news about variance is it’s a two way street. The problem with some poker players is when they are riding out a rush, they think it’s due to their supreme playing abilities. While their skill may help them win more on their hot streak that a weaker player would with the same run of cards, it’s not the only thing keeping the heater going. On the flip side, you can play every hand correctly and still come out on the wrong side of the pot.

One of the best lines I’ve ever heard regarding poker was from a terrific player on another forum called Irieguy. He said “Everybody will eventually run worse than they thought was possible. The difference between a winner and a loser is that the latter thinks they do not deserve it.” Throughout the years I have seen this prophecy come true over and over and over again. We all go through the bad beats and the downswings and even top players complain about suck outs. The best players though, get upset more about hands they played badly, as opposed to the weaker players who get upset about things they have no control over.

When you’re going through those inevitable downswings, there are a few things to remember. First of all, you’re not the only one that runs bad. Everyone goes through the dry streaks, you just have to play through it if you want to get better. Although it may hurt your pride a little bit, one of the best things you can do on a downswing is drop down in limits. The play is going to be weaker so your theoretical win rate is going to jump, and so is your confidence. In addition, if you do continue to “run bad” the financial loss won’t affect you as much.

While variance follows no mathematical boundaries, like most things in poker, there is no denying its existence. I’ve heard from multiple players, “There’s no such thing as running bad, just playing bad.” That narrow minded way of thinking is almost as dangerous as the set of players that repeatedly ask, “Why me? Why does this keep happening over and over?”

For the first group of players, that nasty variance monster is going to hit them a lot harder than most because they’ll never see it coming. They’ll just keep assuming that there are things wrong with their game, which may be true, but only to a point. If they play more passively than they should to avoid losing bigger pots, then maybe they’ll start running better and attribute it to being more passive. The only possible result of that is a lot of missed value.

The second group of players seems to be the group I’ve come across more often. They’re the players that just can’t get it through their head that everybody runs bad and downswings don’t seek out certain people individually. Once these players start losing to bad beats and suck outs, they start to expect it. It turns into a snowball effect of bad cards and bad play and before long they just give up. I’ve seen a number of very good poker players start off on bad runs way too early in their career and quit before they have a chance to see their luck even out. While the set of player that runs hotter than the sun, racks up a bunch of big scores, then goes broke and can’t figure out what happened may have more emotional swings, it’s never fun to watch a would be successful player leave the game before he should.

So remember, variance is out there. It can be very, very good to you one day, then even worse than you could imagine the next. The trick is to remember that it’s not hunting you. Sure it’s going to happen to you sometime, but it’s also going to happen to the guy next to you, and the more you stay focused and determined, the better off you’re going to be. If you play your best when the cards just aren’t falling your way, you’re going to decrease the losses to your bankroll that are going to happen anyway. If you play your best when you’re hitting every flop, turn, and river then after all the cards even out for everyone, you’re going to have the most chips when it’s all said and done.

I guess the moral of the story is, play your best when you’re losing, and play your best when you’re winning. So, more than anything, variance or no variance, just play your best.